The past forty years of neoliberalism, with the reliance on the market for everything, and a default position of turning away from public money, have hollowed out our economy and removed the built-in resilience that should underpin any complex system. The opportunity now exists for a focus across the UK on a resilient economy.
There’s no doubt that Thursday’s UK-wide election results are another slap in the face for the traditional left and right of politics. In England, Labour lost over 1,000 seats and the Conservatives just over 400, whilst Reform gained nearly 1,300 seats and the Greens 300.
The UK has nearly 19,000 council seats, and whilst Labour remains the dominant party by some margin, Labour’s planned Local Government Reorganisation will soon collapse multiple tiers of local government into ‘unitary authorities’ and reduce the number of councillors by between 50% and 70%. With Thursday’s result causing many commentators to announce the death of the two-party system, one might argue Labour has picked an odd moment to further erode its local councillor base.
This week, new administrations will take the reins in Edinburgh and Cardiff. In Scotland, the Scottish National Party returned to power, marking their fifth consecutive term as the largest party in Holyrood. In Wales, for the first time, Plaid Cymru will have the opportunity to lead the Welsh government. This has created a unique position across the UK with three nationalist governments in charge of the devolved nations (including Sinn Féin in Belfast).
Every new parliamentary term presents an opportunity for a new economic direction, but this time it feels different: as the election results show, there is a clear, desperate need for one.
Place
In March 2023, Kate Forbes, the Cabinet Secretary for the Economy at the time, had the confidence to write in the foreword to Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation that the plan was to “deliver economic growth that significantly outperforms the last decade.” Since then, Scotland’s GDP has tracked the UK’s overall growth (as it almost always does) and grew around 1.2% – 1.4% in 2024 and 2025. 2026 will likely be lower. For those who fantasise about growth, these two years of positive growth may be a high-water mark for the rest of the 2020s.
It is unthinkable that any Scottish Government paper will be published in 2026/27 that promises ‘above 2% GDP growth’; however, the SNP described its 2026 manifesto as its most “pro-growth” programme to date, and John Swinney promised to prioritise economic growth if re-elected.
In Wales, Plaid Cymru’s manifesto highlights the “opportunity for change” with a new administration. The programme for government is much less “pro-growth” than in Scotland, and concentrates instead on “untapped economic potential”. Growth in certain sectors (renewables and green technology, digital and artificial intelligence, medical technologies, food systems and agritech, and the creative industries) seems to be the target rather than a blanket charge to create a larger Welsh economy.
In England, Starmer’s 2024 manifesto promised change and made economic growth its first mission as ‘the only route to improving prosperity and living standards’. Labour introduced ‘securonomics’, a mix of active partnerships with business and local stakeholders, strategic public-sector investment, and strengthened economic institutions. On the face of it, much to agree with as the foundation for a resilient economy.
However, it then went on to tie its hands, announcing fiscal rules which sought to prioritise balanced budgets and repayment of ‘debt’. So how’s it going?
In April, the House of Commons Library reported that the UK’s GDP growth, whilst above pre-pandemic levels, continues to lag the US and Eurozone. The OBR predicts 2026’s growth to rest at 1.1%. IMF & OECD forecasts suggest the UK will remain an outlier in 2026.
When Starmer promised change, what he meant was from the chaos of the previous Conservative government. Writing in the Guardian late on the day after those terrible results, the Prime Minister acknowledged his government was not doing enough to protect the finances of ordinary people being battered by global events beyond their control, and promised to set out a new path and to break with the status quo once and for all. We will critique those policies through a ‘resilience’ lens and pay close attention to the role of Labour’s fiscal rules as either a help or a hindrance in restoring the UK’s economic health and the nation’s personal finances.
People
We have met and been impressed with some of the new SNP MSPs who will enter Holyrood for the first time in May. Similarly, we know that some of the SNP’s progressive ‘old guard’ will not sit on their hands in their final term. In Wales, several Plaid Cymru MSs support the wellbeing economy and community wealth building frameworks and point towards a more progressive parliament than was controlled by Labour. In both countries, Green MSPs and MSs are clearly done with the old economic ‘pro-growth-beyond-all-else’. It will be very interesting to see what progress Green councils can make in England.
Planet
These local elections coincided with nationwide screenings of the People’s Emergency Briefing in communities across the land. While the climate crisis is undoubtedly global, its effects will be felt in every street, home, school and place of work. The film explains how climate change will further undermine our nation’s resilience in food, energy, security and health.
The climate crisis is both a cause of and an exposure of our economic resilience. The film asks (newly) elected leaders to implement a range of policies, including upgrading flood defences, retrofitting homes, stress-testing critical infrastructure and tackling weak governance, unclear responsibilities, and insufficient funding. A resilient economy must be built from the local, regional, national and global levels.
Policy
Over the coming months, through regular posts and policy papers, we will detail policies that must form the foundation of the alternative to the ‘growth for the sake of it’ economy. These policies will enhance the economy at the local, regional, sub-national, and national levels.
The ZOE Institute for Future-fit Economies (2025) provides a definition of economic resilience that supports policies supported by many newly elected politicians across the UK.
“Economic resilience assesses how well economic structures can react to shocks and consistently deliver necessary goods and services at appropriate quantity and quality for society, all while upholding the broader objective of promoting intergenerational wellbeing within the limits of our planet.”
We ask our readers, how do the current UK and subnational economies look when assessed on these terms?
Our starting position is that the current UK economy is not resilient. New administrations in Scotland and Wales, and many new Green Party councillors in England have a once in a generation opportunity to start to construct a resilient economy. There is no time to waste.
William Thomson and Simon Ripton
May 2026